Last year, Ubisoft released a sequel to Mario + Rabbids, but CEO Yves Guillemot said the game underperformed financially because they chose to release it on the Nintendo Switch instead of waiting for a new console.
Guillemot said in an emergency investor call at the start of the year that the game had failed because of a consumer "shift towards mega-brands and long-lasting titles" (thanks, Eurogamer). Since then, he has changed his mind and says a "different issue" caused the poor sales, despite the positive critical reception--Sparks of Hope sits at 86 on Metacritic right now.
"We had already released a Mario Rabbids game [on Nintendo Switch], so by doing another we had two similar experiences on one machine," Guillemot told GamesIndustry.biz. "On Nintendo, games like this never die. There are 25 Mario games on Switch. Nintendo [has advised] that it's better to do one iteration on each machine. We were a bit too early, we should have waited for [the next console]."
Ubisoft is still confident that Sparks of Hope "will last for ten years" but not because of its current performance or standing on the Nintendo Switch. It believes longevity will come thanks to an update for the new machine "that will come in the future."
Switch Pro and Switch 2 rumours have been circling for years now, with alleged leaks and insider claims that have yet to amount to anything tangible. Fans are hoping that Nintendo will announce a successor in today's Direct, but those hopes have been there for the past few showcases.
Interestingly, the advice sounds like it comes from Nintendo's own experience, and we can see evidence of it following its own rules on the Switch. There has only been one new 3D Mario game and one traditional 2D Mario game, not including Super Mario Maker 2 or any remasters like 3D World, Sunshine, Galaxy, and 64. Other Mario titles, like Strikers, Golf, and Kart, all fill their own niches, much as Mario + Rabbids appeals to fans of the turn-based tactics genre.
According to leaker Pyoro, who rightly claimed that Everybody 1-2-Switch would be stealth announced and that Sonic Superstars exists, Nintendo will reveal a new 2D Mario during today's Direct. If the advice it gave Ubisoft also applies to itself, this new Mario may be on a new console. But again, rumours about Switch 2 and Switch Pro variants have been shared and speculated about for years. At this point, it's best to wait for Nintendo itself to comment.